• The Trump administration's anti-Houthi campaign cost over $1 billion since March and failed to cripple the militant group.
• A deal was reached in which the U.S. will suspend strikes against the Houthis in exchange for the group halting attacks on U.S. ships.
• The Houthis are expected to continue attacks on Israel and other countries' ships, raising questions about the deal's long-term impact.

President Trump's administration launched a military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, known as Operation Rough Rider, commencing on March 15th. This campaign, aimed at curbing Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, incurred costs exceeding $1 billion. Despite the significant expenditure and resources deployed, including thousands of bombs and missiles, the Houthis maintained their capacity to strike outside Yemen. A recent agreement has been reached, brokered partly by the Omani government, which involves the U.S. suspending strikes in exchange for the Houthis ceasing attacks on U.S. ships.

• What: The U.S. military conducted Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis in Yemen, which included numerous air strikes and the deployment of missile defense systems. A deal was reached to suspend these strikes in exchange for the Houthis halting attacks on U.S. ships.
• Who: Key players include the Trump administration, the Houthis, the Omani government (as a broker), Adm. Sam Paparo, Dana Stroul, and Vice President JD Vance.
• When: The campaign began on March 15, and the deal was announced on a Tuesday (unspecified date). The conflict initially began weeks after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023.
• Where: The conflict and military operations primarily occurred in Yemen and the Red Sea region. The deal was brokered partly through the Omani government.

The Trump administration's campaign against the Houthis, while costly, seemingly failed to significantly degrade the group's capabilities. The deal to suspend strikes on U.S. ships may provide a temporary reprieve, but the Houthis' continued attacks on other targets raise concerns about the deal's overall effectiveness and the long-term stability of the region. The divisions within the Trump administration, as revealed by the Signal group chat incident, highlight the lack of consensus and strategic vision regarding the campaign.

The administration was clearly looking for an off-ramp for this campaign against the Houthis.

Washington has little patience and a short attention span and was unlikely to commit the resources and high-level attention necessary to see this campaign through to a meaningful outcome.

The Houthis will stop shooting at U.S. ships for some period of time, but they will not stop firing missiles at Israel, commercial shipping will not return, and nothing will change in the Yemen civil war.

While the Trump administration's deal with the Houthis, brokered by Oman, may halt attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, its impact on regional stability remains questionable due to the exclusion of other key actors and unresolved issues. The Houthis have pledged to continue attacks against Israel, potentially escalating tensions and undermining the ceasefire's overall effectiveness. This narrow agreement, primarily serving U.S. interests, disregards the broader Yemen conflict, where long-standing disputes over governance and resources fuel the civil war. The underlying issues, including the role of foreign intervention and the dire humanitarian crisis, remain unaddressed, threatening to plunge Yemen back into full-scale civil war. Moreover, the lack of coordination with allies like Israel raises concerns about the U.S. prioritizing its interests over regional stability and potentially emboldening the Houthis. The long-term impact hinges on whether this truce can be expanded to include a comprehensive resolution addressing the needs of all parties involved in the conflict, a prospect that appears uncertain amidst escalating regional tensions and the Houthis' continued aggression towards Israel.